Green Bay Packers had an easy route to the playoffs after their game against the Minnesota Vikings last week: win their next two games, and they’re in. They had the better of Minnesota, especially offensively. With a chance to close out a thrilling season, the Packers now take on a familiar foe in Lambeau Field—the Chicago Bears. Despite the fact that Green Bay has defeated the Bears in their previous nine meetings, they should be cautious going into this game.
The Packers often find themselves in “trap games” after experiencing a surge in momentum. This pattern is exemplified by two noteworthy recent occurrences. Most famously (and heartbreakingly), Green Bay was kept out of the playoffs last year when the Detroit Lions ended their four-game winning streak in Week 18. The Packers had a three-game winning streak earlier in the season, highlighted by an impressive upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions, before falling to the New York Giants.
After the Giants game, Matt LaFleur stated, “I think our team learned a valuable lesson: if you don’t play your best, you won’t win the game regardless of who you play against, where you play, or when you play.” This week, in the locker room, he will undoubtedly reaffirm this message.
More significantly, the Bears have advanced significantly since their first-round encounter. After their first game against Green Bay, Chicago traded for defensive end Montez Sweat, who has helped the defense hone in over the past several weeks. Before acquiring Sweat, the Bears’ defense managed just 57 pressures and three total sacks in their first eight games. In the eight games since Sweat arrived, they have had 24 sacks and 157 pressures, according PFF. Chicago’s turnover differential over their last six games is also +11. In other words, Sweat has made the Bears defense more vulnerable.
The offensive side of the ball has also seen improvement for the Bears. Justin Fields has become the quarterback of choice for rushers since Week 11, has only thrown three interceptions, and has generally become a better passer. It’s also crucial to remember that in Green Bay’s opening game against the Bears, D.J. Moore only got two targets. However, since then, Moore has been targeted five times or more by Chicago quarterbacks Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent, who have a 119.5 passer rating when passing to Moore.
How will the Packers approach opposing the Bears after their makeover? Love’s enhanced processing and ability to read defenses will be crucial. After playing the Vikings, who top the NFL in blitzing (59% of snaps), Green Bay is fresh off a victory over them. Despite the Bears’ infrequent blitzing, Love’s enhanced ability to discern pre-snap variations between when pressure will and won’t arrive was evident in last week’s victory.
For example, the Vikings had six defenders along the line of scrimmage on Jayden Reed’s first score, but two of them drop into coverage during the play. Love’s attitude is unwavering. When a defender fails to rotate fast enough to cover the middle of the field, he quickly processes his read and tosses a dime.
The #Packers quarterback Jordan Love blows rookie Jayden Reed out of the park as the #Vikings sweet middle field closes and then rotates into Tampa 2 late in the game! Pic.twitter.com/lx9Q9Dckvg #GoPackGo
— Clayton (@packers_access), Packers Total Access, January 1, 2024
The key to stopping Chicago’s offense will probably be to restrict Fields’ rushing and provide sufficient coverage for Moore. In the first game, Fields was periodically pursued down by Quay Walker, one of the speedier players on Green Bay’s defense, to cut down on big rushing runs. He will play a pivotal role in their strategy to restrict the deceptive QB of the Bears.
To stop Moore, Green Bay would be better off taking different approaches and offering more assistance. This entails trying to anticipate Fields pursuing Moore early and frequently, rotating safety assistance in zone to provide extra coverage, and chipping Moore at the line of scrimmage to slow down his routes.
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