It is highly likely that Lamar Jackson, the quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens, will be awarded the 2023 NFL MVP. Jackson has not only led his team to the top spot in the AFC but has also had an outstanding performance, throwing seven touchdowns without any interceptions in his recent games and achieving an impressive 102.7 quarterback rating. Just like in 2019 when he won the league MVP, Jackson has once again demonstrated his exceptional skills and has greatly contributed to his team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl in February. Nevertheless, despite being the clear favorite for the MVP after an exceptional 2023 season, the numbers indicate that Dak Prescott, the quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, could be the one to win the award at the end of the season.
Prescott and the Cowboys had a successful season, finishing with a record of 12-5 and winning the NFC East. They also secured the second seed in the NFC Playoffs. Prescott had an impressive performance, throwing for a league-leading 36 touchdowns in 17 games and accumulating 4,516 passing yards with only nine interceptions. In total, he finished the 2023 season with 4,758 yards, 38 touchdowns, a completion percentage of 69.4%, and a sensational quarterback rating of 105.9. The Cowboys were also strong on offense, scoring a league-best average of 29.9 points per game. On the defensive side, they gave up an average of 18.5 points per game, which ranked them as the fifth-best defense in the NFL.
In contrast, the Baltimore Ravens have secured the top seed in the AFC and will have a bye weekend next. Unlike Prescott, Jackson’s team won one more game and he played one less game. Jackson ended the season with 4,499 total yards, 29 touchdowns, 13 turnovers (which is two more than Prescott in one less game), and a 67% completion rate. Even if Jackson had played the entire 17-game schedule like Prescott, he would have fallen far behind in touchdowns and completion percentage, and he already has a higher number of turnovers. When it comes to points per game allowed, the Ravens have the league’s best defense and they also finished with the fourth-highest scoring offense.
According to Bleacher Report, Lamar Jackson is heavily favored to win the MVP award with odds of -20000, almost guaranteeing his victory. In comparison, Prescott has the second-best odds at +1800. Despite Prescott having a better statistical season and his team winning only one less game, it is unfortunate that the race for the award is practically non-existent. While Jackson undoubtedly deserves recognition for playing phenomenally and leading his team to the best record in football, it should be noted that he had the advantage of playing with the best defense in the league.
Despite this, the MVP award has predominantly turned into a recognition for quarterbacks, even though Christian McCaffrey, a highly talented running back for the San Francisco 49ers, has impressive odds (+4000) as the fourth-best contender. Despite his outstanding performance of accumulating 2,203 yards from scrimmage and scoring 21 touchdowns, McCaffrey is still disregarded as a contender for MVP due to the lack of a standout quarterback this year.
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