I was really tempted to write “Meet the Old Guy” in this heading, but I’ll keep it for when Rich Hill inevitably makes his way back here. This is Chase Anderson, who turned 36 in November.
Jokes aside, on Saturday, Anderson signed a Major League contract. The last time he was with the Pirates, he chose to leave after they tried to demote him. He began the season at Tampa but threw mostly for Colorado in 2023.
In 200 of his 218 games, Anderson—who has more than eight years of service time—has been utilized as a starter, as if the Red Sox’s pitching rotation needed any more uncertainty. With the news that Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock will begin the 2024 season in the starting lineup, Anderson’s signing appears to confirm that Cooper Criswell, Josh Winckowski, or both, will be making the trip to Worcester. But the latter is a solid reliever, which creates some confusion.
In other words, he hasn’t been in a while.
Because everything in baseball needs a little more explanation, let me explain: Since 2020, Anderson has played for five different teams and has an ERA over five: 7.22, 6.75, 6.38, and 5.42, respectively. It has at least decreased.
His four-seamer averages just 93 mph, which is in the 36th percentile according to Baseball Savant. He has six pitches total, and he has been using his cutter more and more lately with mixed (better) results. Even worse, in 158 1⁄3 innings pitched since 2021, he has only struck out 122 batters.
With his 6.67 K/9 result, 2023 was just in the 12th percentile of qualifying pitchers. Why are there only so many innings? If you’re filling out your free agent acquisition bingo card for the Red Sox, he had a bothersome shoulder ailment the previous season, but it didn’t really stop him from playing 86 1⁄3 innings, which was his highest total since 2019. He’s just had to take a long time to get back into the swing of things down in Triple-A; since 2019, he’s been an arm at that level for seven different clubs. A few months ago, I saw someone on Facebook remark that Teddy Bridgewater had been used like a blunt; Chase Anderson appears to be in the similar boat, but less productively. It made me chuckle uncontrollably.
Anderson has had successful seasons in the past. In 2017, for example, he worked himself to a 12-4 record over 141 1⁄3 innings while with the Brewers, recording just a 2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP. However, that was over ten years ago, and if Boston’s inactive offseason behavior was, as previously mentioned, a gauge of their available assets, then the data simply does not support offering Anderson a Major League contract, no matter how small. Craig Breslow might see someone who can eat innings and isn’t hit hard frequently, but that could probably be said of about six players in the club.
Well, given that he did not want to be demoted as a member of the Pirates, one of two, or two and a half, things are going to happen. Two and a half? Yes, let me explain.
1) With Andrew Bailey’s pitching leadership, Anderson reinvents himself as a guy who can go a few innings without anything catastrophic happening. He actually reached the hallowed 5 innings mark 10 times in 2023, so if you leave out the fact that he made 20 appearances, was part of some garish box scores such as a 14-6 loss, a 25-1 loss and a 14-3 loss all in a row, that may place him among the most durable of arms we have.
2) A bit more likely, Anderson is a mop-up guy.
2.5) Anderson does NOT find himself. He sticks around Boston, matching around his ZiPS projection of a 5.04 ERA, 5.06 FIP, strikes out significantly less than a batter an inning, and the team is left to survive a WHIP of 1.56.
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