According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Braves are “keeping a close eye on” Zach Eflin as a potential trade target leading up to the deadline.
Rotation help has been identified as a likely necessity for Atlanta since Spencer Strider’s season-ending internal brace surgery, and Eflin stands out as a potentially fascinating option for a variety of reasons.
First and foremost, Eflin is once again performing well in terms of bottom-line outcomes, with a 4.12 ERA in 10 starts and 59 innings. The right-hander remains one of the top control specialists in the game, with a 1.6% walk rate, but there are some red lights in other important areas.
Eflin is again among the league leaders in barrels even if his barrel rate is only slightly below average, but his hard-hit ball rate (41.6%) and strikeout rate (17.9%) are also both subpar. He was well above average in both categories in 2023, when Eflin’s first season in Tampa Bay resulted in a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.
A contender like the Braves won’t necessarily be scared off by Eflin’s 2024 numbers, as they are very familiar with Eflin’s work after dealing with him as a division rival during Eflin’s years with the Phillies. Durability might also be a concern given Eflin’s long history of knee problems, but he tossed 182 2/3 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs and had only a brief IL stint due to a bad back.
These are all good reasons why the Rays themselves might naturally want to keep Eflin in their own rotation as they continue to vie for another postseason berth. Tampa Bay is 11-6 in its last 17 games, a hot streak that has gotten the club back up to a 25-23 record after a mediocre April.
If at least one of Springs, Baz or Rasmussen is already back by the deadline and the Rays are comfortable with the recovery status of the others, it is possible Tampa Bay might feel comfortable counting on these internal arms to help fill the gap created by trading Eflin.
It is a risk that most teams might not take, and yet as always with the Rays, payroll could be a factor in their decision-making. Eflin is in the second season of a three-year, $40M contract that was paid out as $11M in both 2023 and 2024 and then $18M in 2025. (He also receives a $1M bonus in the event of a trade.)
Leave a Reply